Keir Starmer is back from his trip to the Far East, where he successfully negotiated important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, there were no significant issues during the high-stakes visit to Beijing. However, the focus in Downing Street now shifts to domestic matters, with discussions brewing about an upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the historically Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will select their new Member of Parliament following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster by Labour’s governing body has raised concerns among some MPs, who worry it could have negative repercussions.
Speculation among backbenchers suggests that losing the by-election could be interpreted as Starmer sacrificing a seat to prevent Burnham’s return. While some are apprehensive, others believe victory is achievable. Labour MP Karl Turner, critical of the government’s changes to jury trials, expressed optimism after speaking with deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell, who provided positive feedback about the ground situation.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the by-election, noting the potential influence of Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party. He emphasized the changing dynamics of the constituency, once a stronghold for Labour but now facing a more competitive landscape.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, described the by-election as a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, all influenced by Nigel Farage’s presence. Tactical voting will play a crucial role in determining the outcome, with voters deliberating on how to counter Reform’s influence.
The race remains unpredictable, with strategic voting and party dynamics shaping the contest. Concerns about stopping Reform from prevailing are prevalent among voters, leading to tactical indecision. As the by-election date nears, the political landscape in Gorton and Denton remains fluid, with various parties vying for voter support.