Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s figures by close to 50 percent, with approximately 20 million barrels shipped to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data analysis. The NSR connects Russia’s western ports with Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, known for being a riskier and more costly route. However, this year, it became a more appealing option due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region.
The increased demand for alternative shipping routes has led to a surge in tanker freight rates to record levels. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts in regions like Iran and Ukraine have fueled inflation, making U.S. crude oil less accessible to Asian refiners, prompting them to explore options from the Middle East and Latin America. Consequently, the higher tariffs for utilizing the NSR, which requires icebreaker assistance, have become more economically viable compared to the traditional route through the Red Sea to Asia.
For Russia, which governs the NSR, this route provides a secure alternative to European waters, where incidents of tankers carrying Russian oil being detained have been reported this year. Traders’ initial estimates suggest that the volume of Russian oil exported through the Arctic route is likely to increase by another five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a prominent Russian oil company, is set to boost its NSR shipments by around 35 percent this year compared to 2025, as confirmed by CEO Alexander Dyukov during a press briefing in Moscow. Apart from oil, Russia also transports significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia through the NSR, with expectations of increased LNG shipments following the commencement of Arctic LNG deliveries.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok in September, President Vladimir Putin projected that cargo turnover via the NSR would double to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The opening of Rosneft’s expansive new oil project, Vostok Oil, in the northern region of Russia last month has already contributed to the escalating volumes transported via the NSR.