After Andy Burnham expressed his intention to compete in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer found himself in a difficult position with limited options.
Allowing Burnham to enter the race posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge and eliminating a barrier to such a move, as only MPs are eligible to run for the leadership position.
Additionally, the prospect of facing an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amid challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May added to the dilemma. Poor results in these races could pose a significant threat to Starmer, with Burnham and other contenders eyeing the top position ready to seize the opportunity.
The alternative, which the Prime Minister opted for, was to prevent Burnham from running, citing the financial burden on taxpayers of holding a mayoral election and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming May elections. While this move dealt with the immediate threat, it could lead to severe long-term consequences.
Following the announcement, numerous MPs voiced their discontent, accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a premeditated decision. Burnham could potentially become a symbol for disgruntled backbenchers who perceive the ruling as overly controlling from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has shown a propensity for rebellion by pressuring the Government into multiple policy reversals. Provoking further dissent among them will not make Starmer’s position any easier.
A government official I spoke to before the ruling suggested in private that allowing Burnham to run would have been a stronger strategic move, implying that Starmer might appear weaker by blocking him.
Number 10 has already launched a vigorous campaign against Wes Streeting, viewed as a potential leadership contender, and has now barred Burnham from returning to Westminster. The interpretation of these actions as indicators of strength or weakness varies depending on who you ask, with most leaning towards the latter.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal disputes that have wearied the public. However, in reality, this may not be the case. Until Starmer can uplift Labour’s declining poll numbers, speculation about his future is likely to persist.
Despite facing criticism from some quarters, Burnham remains a popular figure, having cultivated a favorable reputation beyond the confines of Westminster, earning him the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour secured Gorton comfortably in 2024, the party will encounter a challenge in retaining it as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset, while the Greens aim to siphon votes from the left. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the by-election’s outcome.
If Labour were to lose the by-election now, significant consequences would ensue.