A forecast by the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday indicated that the El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027, potentially becoming the most powerful on record. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend persists, it could surpass any previous occurrences in the past four decades.
The UN weather agency highlighted a high probability of El Niño persisting until February 2027 due to unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty in the forecast is unprecedented. El Niño’s impact, especially during strong occurrences, can lead to significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns, contributing to extreme weather events like typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of El Niño’s intensification, stating that the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño is a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific resulting from weakened trade winds, occurring every two to seven years and typically lasting up to 12 months, affecting weather patterns across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already affected agricultural production in tropical regions, leading to food shortages in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO reported that El Niño is expected to peak by the end of the year but will continue to impact global temperatures into 2027. The organization is enhancing readiness and early warning systems to address the potential consequences.
Saulo emphasized the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with partners in the UN and humanitarian sectors to provide critical climate information for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources. The organization aims to support preparedness efforts through climate intelligence and insights.
The WMO encouraged vigilance and proactive measures as El Niño evolves, affecting weather conditions worldwide. The organization’s focus remains on mitigating risks and supporting vulnerable communities facing the repercussions of extreme weather events.