Russia perceives itself to be in a state of conflict with NATO allies, even though this conflict has not yet turned into direct military engagement. This mindset allows the Kremlin to secure the necessary resources to carry out strategic attacks on NATO defenses, assess vulnerabilities, and determine boundaries.
Recent actions by Russia in Europe, attributed to acts of sabotage, include targeting the Polish railway system, attempting to disrupt undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and engaging in an increasingly aggressive campaign by the GRU to disrupt supply chains critical to NATO’s support of Ukraine.
The primary objectives of these actions are to raise the costs for NATO’s military and economic aid to Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord in Western nations. Despite these provocations, Russia has carefully avoided crossing any thresholds that would trigger a military response from NATO, often using third-party proxies to carry out attacks, making it difficult to attribute responsibility.
Although these sabotage operations lack significant coordination across Europe and may not always align with the level of support provided to Ukraine by targeted countries like Germany, France, and Poland, the UK, despite substantial aid to Ukraine, has experienced fewer physical attacks. This discrepancy does not diminish Russia’s interest in the UK, as evidenced by ongoing intelligence activities, including recent surveillance activities by Russian vessels in British waters.
Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe suffered setbacks in 2022 due to diplomatic expulsions, leading to a need for rebuilding and reliance on local proxies, impacting the effectiveness of their operations. However, Russia is likely to adapt and improve its tactics over time, posing a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.