Despite a cool weekend with temperatures dropping below the usual averages across the UK, winter is not yet fully settling in. Recent weather forecasts indicate a warm surge from the Iberian jet stream that is expected to sweep over Britain.
According to WXCharts, parts of southern England could experience temperatures reaching around 17C as early as 6 am on November 1. Locations such as London, Surrey, Buckinghamshire, and Hampshire are forecasted to have highs near 16C, with the Isle of Wight possibly hitting 17C.
Other regions like Kent, Wiltshire, Essex, Suffolk, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, and Lincolnshire may also see maximum temperatures around 15C.
Meteorologists at Netweather predict that the jet stream will be particularly active by 9 am on November 1, traversing across Europe, including France, Spain, and Portugal.
The jet stream, a swiftly moving air current high in the atmosphere, typically travels from west to east over the Atlantic towards Europe. Depending on its positioning, it can influence whether the UK experiences colder or warmer conditions.
While the jet stream is a natural occurrence unrelated to climate change, experts note that the warming planet is intensifying Iberian jet streams, leading to more frequent and robust patterns that contribute to extreme weather events like heatwaves and wildfires across Europe.
The Met Office’s extended forecast from November 1 to November 10 suggests that above-average temperatures are more probable, especially initially. Expect fewer instances of overnight frosts or fogs compared to the usual patterns.
Nonetheless, the weather agency cautions that the start of November will bring changeable and occasionally unsettled weather, with low-pressure systems dominating much of the UK.
The Met Office further states, “This indicates further showers or prolonged periods of rain at times. While all regions could experience heavy rain intermittently, western areas are likely to be the wettest. Conversely, there may also be some, albeit brief, drier or clearer intervals, most common in eastern areas.”
The warmest November on record in the UK occurred in 2015, when Trawsgoed, Wales recorded a scorching 22.3C, a record also attributed to the jet stream. The previous record of 21.7C, set in Prestatyn, Wales, dated back to 1946.